On August 1st, Donald Trump fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. Earlier in the day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released disappointing monthly employment numbers, following up on an earlier release showing that inflation ticked up in June. Both releases suggest that consumers are starting to feel the pain of the administration’s tariffs and erratic economic agenda.
Instead of using the data to inform his policies, President Trump took to Truth Social, falsely accusing McEntarfer of manipulating the figures. Ironically, he didn’t provide any facts backing up this reasoning for firing the country’s chief factfinder. The move drew swift rebuke.
Before Friday, many consumers will have never heard of the Bureau of Labor Statistics or Commissioner McEntarfer. It is supposed to be this way. The role of the BLS – producing free and accurate economic data – is (admittedly) dull. Much like nuclear safety inspectors and air traffic controllers, the work of the BLS is easily taken-for-granted.
At the Consumer Federation of America, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is crucial for our consumer research and advocacy. For example, every month we rely on their detailed inflation figures to track grocery prices for everyday Americans. The data is produced by hundreds of individuals going to their local stores and recording price information. The funding, people-power, and expertise of the Bureau of Labor Statistics cannot be replaced.
This move is the latest in an alarming string of actions by the Trump administration seeking to undermine independent data and research. Thousands of research grants from the National Science Foundation have been cancelled, stunting scientific progress. Federal funding for universities – notably Harvard and Columbia – has been frozen, driving fears of a brain drain. Even before the firing of its Commissioner, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was operating at around 60% capacity due to DOGE’s hiring freeze and firing of probationary employees.
What happens now?
The Bureau is mandated by Congress to produce certain economic indicators, so it will continue to exist under a new Commissioner. It’s possible that the next Commissioner will be able to skillfully navigate the new politics of federal statistics, producing accurate data while avoiding the President’s ire. But, since the Commissioner will be appointed by Trump and confirmed by a pliant Congress, there is every reason to expect a sycophant.
The more likely possibility is that public and private decision-makers will no longer be able to fully trust economic statistics from the government. An informative parallel here is China. The Chinese Communist Party has a habit of suppressing data that reflects poorly on their policies. The result is that researchers have needed to create alternative indexes of economic growth in China, using variables like electricity consumption, rail cargo, and bank lending (the so-called “Li Qiang Index”). Outside of the time, money, and effort needed to construct such indexes, the biggest drawback of these indexes is that these are indirect measures, and thus less accurate than what a truly independent federal statistical agency would produce.
Regardless of what happens at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CFA remains committed to producing independent, accurate, and rigorous research on consumers. Unlike the President, we are not afraid of inconvenient facts.