The monthly inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came out this morning, once again confirming what many of us have felt at the register: grocery prices are rising. The latest report is the second inflation release with a dose of uncertainty, following the termination via social media post of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, blamed for presiding over “RIGGED” estimates of job creation. Taking the latest BLS report at face value, the Consumer Price Index for food rose 0.5% in August compared to July, bringing annual food inflation up 3.2% compared to August of 2024.  

Mercifully, the increase falls well short of the double-digit pandemic-era food inflation that peaked in the summer of 2022, but the trend is concerning. When the second Trump Administration came into office, food inflation finally seemed to have returned to the 1-2% status quo that reigned for over a decade prior to the pandemic. Now, consumers are again feeling the pinch. According to polling, 53% of Americans consider “the cost of groceries” a “major source of stress.” And food companies report increasing demand for generics and other bargain buys, as consumers “focus on the essentials and forego the extras.”   

Several factors contribute to food inflation, including many such as droughts and supply-chain bottlenecks that largely fall outside of politicians’ control. But most economists agree that one of the Administrations’ key policies—tariffs—have contributed significantly to pushing up prices. Tariffs are essentially a national sales tax on imported goods and on domestically produced goods that contain imported components like steel and aluminum (think canned tuna). According to the non-partisan Tax Foundation, these tariffs represent the largest federal tax hike since 1993. 

According to recent data from the non-partisan Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate now stands at 17.4%, the highest since The Great Depression.  The same researchers estimate that tariffs will result in food prices rising 3.4% in the short-term and 2.5% in the long-term. Fresh produce will get particularly pricey, rising 4.1% in the short-term. Combined with the massive cuts to federal food assistance programs in the “Big Beautiful Bill,” the Administration’s policies are putting a healthy diet out of reach for millions of Americans, many of them children. 

When the Administration first proposed major new tariffs, major food retailers like Walmart claimed they would do what they could to absorb the costs and resist passing them along to consumers. But eventually consumers must pay. These are businesses, not charities. According to more recent reporting, Walmart has indeed raised prices on a range of goods to cover the new taxes and will continue to do so. And economists warn more price hikes will likely follow as companies adjust, with an estimated 70% of tariffs eventually passed onto consumers. 

This month’s inflation data is starting to bear this out. When President Trump took office, the average price of coffee was $7.02 per pound. Now coffee costs $8.87, a 26% increase. Notably, we import almost all the coffee we drink. Nearly half of it comes from just three countries—Colombia, Brazil, and Switzerland—on which the Administration has imposed tariffs of 10%, 50%, and 39% respectively. A similar story holds for bananas. In January, they cost about 62 cents a pound. Now the average price around the country is 67 cents, an increase of 8%. The top three banana suppliers to the U.S.—Guatemala, Ecuador, and Costa Rica—face tariffs of 10%, 15%, and 15%, respectively. But prices are not just rising for foods produced exclusively or even primarily abroad. For example, average ground beef prices rose from $5.55 per pound in January to $6.32 per pound in August.  

Reasonable people can disagree about trade policy and how open the American economy should be to foreign competition, but the current tariff chaos comes straight out of the authoritarian playbook. Earlier this year, we wrote about the link between a decline in freedom and food inflation across the rich world. While it is important not to confuse correlation with causation, early signs point to this pattern holding in the United States. The tariffs allow the Administration to shake down foreign governments and companies for cash and political favors, and to punish those who dare to defend democratic norms. The Administration’s 50% tariff on Brazil, specifically tied to the trial of former president and Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro for leading a failed coup in 2022, offers a particularly poignant illustration of what’s at stake. Bangladesh, which responded to tariff threats by fast tracking regulatory approval of Elon Musk’s satellite internet provider Starlink, may represent the more typical example.  

Unlike other Executive powers like the pardon, the authority to levy tariffs rests on shaky legal ground. The Supreme Court has agreed to fast-track a hearing on whether the federal government may levy these new taxes under existing law in November. A decision against the Trump administration raises the prospect of massive refunds for importers. But the courts should not dictate federal tax policy any more than the Administration, that is the job of Congress.  

Back in May, Senator Rand Paul introduced legislation to reclaim Congress’ power to levy tariffs, including a resolution to cancel tariffs on Canada and Mexico that passed 51-48 in the Senate. But in the House, Republican leadership has refused to allow a vote on the resolution, or on the many other bills seeking to protect consumers from the corruption and corporate price gouging that the tariffs threaten to usher in. Instead, House leaders have pledged to reinstate any tariffs invalidated by the Supreme Court.  

Whether House leaders can get the votes to keep tariffs in place should the Supreme Court rule against the Trump administration remains to be seen. With the swearing in today of Democrat James Walkinshaw, who won a special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, the House is split 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats. This means that if the GOP loses more than two members on a party-line vote, tariffs could soon become a distant memory. Until then, expect food inflation, driven in no small part by massive new federal taxes, to only get worse.